疟疾与气候因素关系的分析

目的根据邳州市2001—2006年气象资料与疟疾发病的情况，探讨气候因素对疟疾发病率的影响及其相关性，为实施疟疾防治工作提供基础数据。方法收集邳州市2001—2006年疟疾发病资料及同期的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降雨量、相对湿度、蒸发量、总云量、日照时间、低云量等气象资料，运用sPSs11．5统计软件建立数据库，对疟疾疫情与各气候因素的关系进行相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。结果2001～2006年邳州市疟疾发病率（Y）与同期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降雨量、相对湿度、蒸发量、总云量有较高的正相关关系，与日照时间、低云量无关，各气候因子之间相关关系显著。回归方程为Y=-0．479＋0．007X1＋0．75X2，（X1、X2分别代表最低平均气温和相对湿度）。结论气候因素影响着疟疾发病率变化，尤其是月平均最低温度和湿度，从而成为影响疟疾发病的主要气候因素.

Analysis of the Correlation between Malaria and Meteorological Factors

Objective To explore the correlation between malaria and meteorological factors so as to provide basic data for malaria control,based on the incidence of malaria and the meteorological data in Pizhou county from 2001 to 20061 Methods Monthly cases of mosquito-borne disease from 2001 to 2006 were collected from Pizhou county. Meanwhile the data of monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, rainfall days, relative humidity, evaporation, total cloud cover, sunlight time and low cloud were collected form Pizhou weather bureau. Correlation analysis and multi-liner stepwise regression analysis were performed with SPSS 11.5 software. Results The results showed that the incidence of malaria was passive relative to average temperature, highest temperature, lowest temperature, rainfall, humidity, evaporation and total cloud cover, but no relation with low cloud and sunlight. Regression equation Y = -0. 479 ＋ 0. 007X1 ＋ 0.75X2 （X1 = monthly minimumtemperature. X2 = relative humidity）. Conclusion Meteorological parameters affected incidence of malaria, especially the monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity, the monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity became two main factors affecting the incidence of malaria.