山东省肥城市1998—2011年农村居民恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析

目的：分析山东省肥城市农村居民1998—2011年恶性肿瘤死亡情况及趋势，为该市恶性肿瘤防治研究工作提供参考依据。方法：采用肥城市农村居民1998—2011年恶性肿瘤死亡登记资料，计算恶性肿瘤死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率和死亡构成比等指标，采用Joinpoint软件估计死亡率的年度变化百分率（APC），分析恶性肿瘤变化趋势。结果：1998—2011年肥城市农村恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为195．72／10万，标化死亡率为153．14／10万，恶性肿瘤死因顺位前5位依次为食管癌、胃癌、肺癌、肝癌和结直肠癌，农村恶性肿瘤标化死亡率、男性标化死亡率均呈上升趋势（P〈0．05），平均年度增加百分率（AAPC）和95％CI分别为1．7％（0．6％～2．7％）和2．2％（1．0％～3．3％）。男性肺癌、男性结直肠癌、女性肺癌、结直肠癌和乳腺癌标化死亡率呈上升趋势（P〈0．05），AAPC和95％CI分别为5．3％（3．6％～7．1％），16．8％（10．3％～23．7％），7．4％（4．4％～10．5％），14．1％（4．8％～24．3％），9．9％（5．1％～14．9％），其余癌种标化死亡率无明显趋势变化。结论：1998—2011年肥城市农村居民恶性肿瘤死亡率呈不断上升趋势，消化系统肿瘤、肺癌和乳腺癌等主要恶性肿瘤的防治形势严峻。加强肿瘤登记质量控制，提高登记数据质量，有助于肿瘤防治工作的顺利开展。

Analysis on the trend for cancer mortality in rural areas of Feicheng,Shandong Province from 1998 to 2011

OBJECTIVE： To investigate time trends of cancer mortality among residents in Feicheng rural areas, Shandong Province from 1998 to 2011 ,and provide basic information for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors in this area. METHODS：Datas on cancer mortality from 1998 to 2011 from Feicheng Cancer Registry database were ana-lyzed. Mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, age-specific mortality rate and death composition were calculated and an- alyzed. Joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the annual percentage changes（APC） in mortality rates. RESULTS： Averagely,the crude mortality rate was 195.72 per 100 000,and the standardized mortality rate was 153.14 per 100 000. The top five mortaliies of malignant tumors were esophageal cancer,gastric cancer,lung cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer,and the standardized rate for cancer mortality increased greatly during the 14 years, and AAPC and 95 % CI was 1.7%（0.6%-2.7%） ;So were the standardized rates of males,with AAPC and 95%CI 2.2%（1.0%-3.3%）. Also,the standardized rates of lung cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer were rising annually while there were no obvious changes in other cancer rates. Their AAPC and 95 % CI were 5.3 % （ 3. 6 % - 7.1% ）, 16.8 % （ 10.3 % - 23.7 % ）, 7.4 % （4.4 % - 10.5 % ）, 14.1% （4.8 % - 24.3 % ） and 9.9 % （ 5.1% - 14.9 % ） respectively. CONCLUSIONS ： The mortality rates of cancer in rural areas of Feicheng have shown a significant increase between 1998 and 2011. The monotor and control of digestive malignant tumor, lung cancer, breast cancer should be focused on. We should strengthen quality control for cancer registration and improve the data quality which is helpful for cancer prevention and treatment.