国境口岸传染病流行风险评估体系的建立及应用研究

目的建立科学、实用的国境口岸传染病流行风险评估体系。方法应用文献梳理、专家评估方法选定口岸传染病流行风险评估指标，以风险矩阵的半定量法作为评估工具，将风险评估指标归类于口岸传染病传播风险和易感风险两个风险维度，同时设定判定规则。构建的风险评估体系应用区域或全球流行的经典传染病案例进行回顾性综合分析，结合其实际流行与否的事实，来修正完善风险评估体系。结果构建的口岸传染病流行风险评估体系包含目标层、准则层和指标层3个层级，由疾病严重性、疾病超预期性、新发或再发传染病、具有特殊的事件背景、国际／国内流行态势、防控难度和易感度等9项风险因子组成，共覆盖到24个风险评估指标，以及对应的综合判定规则和配套的风险评估矩阵。同时，经中东呼吸综合征（新型冠状病毒病）、人感染H7N9禽流感、甲型H1N1流感等典型传染病流行案例的验证，评估结果与事实的一致度较高。结论构建的口岸传染病流行风险评估体系适用于出入境检验检疫机构对国境口岸传染病流行的风险预判，同时在此基础上，仍需组建风险评估专家组，配合应用该体系，以进一步提升风险评估的有效性和准确度。

Establishment and application of risk assessment system for epidemic of communicable disease at frontier ports

Objective To establish a scientific and efficient risk assessment system for epidemic of communicable diseases at frontier ports. Methods The literature searching and expertise were employedused for screening risk assessment indexes of epidemic of communicable diseases, and risk matrix was used as assessment tool. All of the risk assessment indexes were classified as two risk dimensions including spreading and susceptible risks. This system was rectified by means of classical cases of epidemic communicahle diseases. Results Three levels in the established system which included nine risk factors such as severity, unpredictable, new or re-emerging disease and so on. Total of 24 risk assessment indexes were covered. Then synthetical regulation and risk matrix were established. The system was rectified by the classical cases including Middle East respiratory syndrome （Novel coronavirus infections）, avian influenza A（H7N9）, avian influenza A（HIN1） and so on. The results of risk assessment were highly coherence with the epdemiological facts. Conclusion The risk assessment system is useful for the risk assessment for epidemic of communicable diseases at frontier ports. And the risk assessment expert group should be enrolled for increasing the efficiency and veracity of the system.