基于决策曲线和剂量反应分析评估乳酸脱氢酶对儿童难治性肺炎支原体肺炎的预测价值

目的 探讨乳酸脱氢酶（LDH）对儿童难治性肺炎支原体肺炎（RMPP）的预测价值。方法 通过倾向性匹配法获得73例RMPP患儿为难治组，146例非难治性的普通MPP患儿为普通组，利用logistic回归、限制性立方样条模型和决策曲线分析评估LDH对RMPP的临床预测价值。结果 难治组和普通组高热发生率、WBC计数、血小板计数、中性粒细胞百分比及血清C反应蛋白、降钙素原、血红蛋白、白蛋白、谷氨酸-丙酮酸氨基转移酶、天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶、LDH含量的比较差异有统计学意义（P < 0.05）。两组鼻咽抽吸物MP-DNA载量及胸腔积液、肺实变、肺不张、气促、皮肤损害发生率的比较差异有统计学意义（P < 0.05）。多因素logistic回归分析显示，高热、血红蛋白水平、LDH水平、肺实变是RMPP发生的独立预测因素（OR分别为10.097、0.956、1.006、3.756，均P < 0.05）。限制性立方样条分析结果显示，LDH连续性变化与RMPP发生的关联强度呈非线性剂量反应关系（P < 0.01）。决策曲线分析显示LDH对RMPP的预测有重要临床价值。结论 LDH是儿童RMPP发生的独立预测因素，与RMPP发生的关联强度呈非线性剂量反应关系。

Value of lactate dehydrogenase in predicting refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children: an evaluation based on decision curve analysis and dose-response analysis

Objective To study the value of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in predicting refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) in children. Methods Propensity score matching was used to select 73 children with RMPP (refractory group) and 146 children with non-refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (common group). The logistic regression analysis, restricted cubic spline model, and decision curve analysis were used to analyze the clinical value of LDH in predicting RMPP. Results There were significant differences in the incidence of high fever, white blood cell count, platelet count, percentage of neutrophils, and serum levels of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, hemoglobin, albumin, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase and LDH (P < 0.05). There were also significant differences between the two groups in the Mycoplasma pneumoniae-DNA load in nasopharyngeal aspirates and the incidences of pleural effusion, pulmonary consolidation, atelectasis, shortness of breath and skin lesions (P < 0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high fever, hemoglobin level, LDH level, and pulmonary consolidation were independent predictive factors for RMPP (OR=10.097, 0.956, 1.006, and 3.756; P < 0.05). The results of the restricted cubic spline analysis showed a non-linear dose-response relationship between the continuous changes of LDH and the development of RMPP (P < 0.01). The decision curve analysis showed that LDH had an important clinical value in predicting RMPP. Conclusions LDH is an independent predictive factor for the development of RMPP and its intensity of association with the development of RMPP exhibits a non-linear dose-response relationship.