青城子铅矿矽肺防治效果评价与发病趋势的预测

本文应用寿命表方法对青城子铅矿三十余年来的矽肺发病情况及其防治效果进行了调查与评价,对今后发病趋势进行了预测。结果表明:自50年代中期开展的矽肺防治工作,在降低患病率、进期率、肺结核合并率以及病死率等方面取得了显著的效果;1959年以前参加接尘工作的50岁以上的井下矿工将是该矿今后一个时期内矽肺检出的主要对象;今后十五年内矽肺发病人数仍将在一个较高的水平,十五年后开始下降,二十年后显著下降,二十五年后大幅度下降。

An Evaluation on the Effect of Control Measures and Prediction on the Prevalence of Silicosis in a Lead mine

In this study the life table method wasused to investigate the incidence of silicosisand the effect of its prevention and treatmentin a periods of thirty years in a lead mine,and to predict the siilcosis trend in the futureas well. The results indicated that the preven-tion and treatment of silicosis since 1950 s'had led to significant outcome. The incidenceof silicosis stage rate of progression, complica-tion with tuberculosis and mortality rate alldecreased. The results of prediction showedthat the old miners over 50 years of age expo-sed to the dust environment since 1959 werethe main potential victims of silicosis. Incidenceof silicosis continued to keep at a higher levelwithin 15 years, then it would begin to dec-rease significantly in 20 years, and finally, itwould decrease greatly 25 years later.