Prediction of adult height in healthy Japanese children

Longitudinal records from 13,707 children (6749 boys and 6958 girls), aged 6–17 years, were fitted by a smoothing cubic spline function, and the factors influencing changes in height SD score (SDS) during puberty were analysed. Height SDS at 6 years correlated closely with final height SDS. However, short children at 6 years of age tended to increase their height SDS at final height, whereas tall children at the same age tended to decrease their final height SDS. For children with the same prepubertal height, the later that pubertal maturation occurred, the greater was the final height achieved. As short children entered puberty relatively late and tall children entered puberty relatively early, height SDS tended to approach 0 SD during puberty. A prediction function obtained by multiple regression analysis using height SDS at 6 years, the percentage by which the child is overweight at 6 years, age at onset of the pubertal growth spurt (PGS) and height at onset of the PGS provides a reasonable model for the prediction of final height SDS without the need to estimate bone age.