| 自回归求和移动平均模型在阜阳市手足口病疫情预测预警中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙良,万俊峰,宋秀萍,田亚珍,梁长流,刘奇泉,丁振涛,杜杰. 自回归求和移动平均模型在阜阳市手足口病疫情预测预警中的应用[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2014, 0(4): 25-27 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙良 万俊峰 宋秀萍 田亚珍 梁长流 刘奇泉 丁振涛 杜杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省阜阳市疾病预防控制中心,安徽阜阳236030 |
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| 基金项目： | 2013年安徽省卫生厅第二批科研计划项目（妇儿课题）（13FR013） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨自回归求和移动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA）在手足口病疫情预测预警中的应用,验证分析模型的可行性与适用性。方法利用安徽阜阳市2009-2013年手足口病发病资料,拟合ARIMA模型,对阜阳市2014年1-3月各月发病情况进行预测评价。结果建立ARIMA（1,2,0）（0,1,0）12模型,预测结果基本符合实际发病变动趋势,验证了该模型的可用性。结论 ARIMA模型可用于模拟手足口病发病在时间序列上的变化趋势,进行短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 时间序列 手足口病 |
Applications of ARIMA model on forecasting incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuyang city |
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| SUN Liang,WAN Jun-feng,SONG Xiu-ping,TIAN Ya-zhen,HANG Chang-liu,LIU Qi-quan,DING Zhen-tao,DU Jie. Applications of ARIMA model on forecasting incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuyang city[J]. Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 2014, 0(4): 25-27 |
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| Authors: | SUN Liang WAN Jun-feng SONG Xiu-ping TIAN Ya-zhen HANG Chang-liu LIU Qi-quan DING Zhen-tao DU Jie |
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| Affiliation: | (Fuyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuyang 236030, China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） on forecastinghand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD）, and confirm its feasibility and applicability. Methods ARIMA model was fitted withthe data of HFMD from 2009 to 2013 and the monthly incidence cases from January to March, 2014 for HFMD waspredicted and evaluated. Results The model of ARIMA（1,2,0） （0,1,0） 12 was established, and was used to verify itsusability. The predictive results were basically similar to the actual incidence. Conclusion The model of ARIMA can beused to fit the trends of HFMD on time series, and make short-term forecasts. |
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| Keywords: | AR/MA Time series HFMD |
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