2004—2017年全国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎发病趋势

目的  分析2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎(简称乙肝)发病趋势。方法  2004-2017年0~10岁人群乙肝发病数据来自国家公共卫生科学数据中心。应用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析发病趋势变化，计算年均变化百分比和年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型，分析年龄、时期和出生队列对乙肝发病趋势变化的影响。结果  2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群新发乙肝病例共17 007万例，发病率为7.74/10万。Joinpoint回归分析模型结果显示，2004-2017年0~10岁人群的乙肝发病率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-12.060 45，P＜0.001)，2015-2017年(APC=2.28，P=0.907 7)呈无规律变化。出生队列分析发现出生年代越晚的人群，乙肝发病率越低。同时，年龄-时期-队列模型结果表明，0~10岁人群乙肝发病率变化受到年龄、时期和队列因素的影响(均有P＜0.001)。结论  2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群的乙肝发病率总体不断降低，2015-2017年间下降趋势有所放缓。建议进一步加强对乙肝的防制措施，不断降低乙肝发病风险。

Incidence trend of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years in China from 2004 to 2017

  Objective  To analyze the incidence trend of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old in China from 2004 to 2017.  Methods  The data of hepatitis B incidence among people aged 0-10 years old from 2004 to 2017 was used from the National Public Health Science Data Center. The incidence trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and the average percent change and the annual percent change were calculated. At the same time, the age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the impalt of age, period and birth cohort on the trend of hepatitis B.  Results  From 2004 to 2017, there were 170 700 new cases of hepatitis B among the 0-10 years old in China, and the incidence rate was 7.74/100 000. Besides, the results of Joinpoint regression showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old presented a general downward trend from 2004 to 2017 (AAPC=-12.060 45, P < 0.001), and there was an irregular change from 2015 to 2017 (APC=2.28, P=0.9077). Birth cohort analysis showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B was lower in the later generation. Meanwhile, the results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B among the 0-10 years old population was significantly influenced by age, period and cohort (all P < 0.001).  Conclusions   From 2004 to 2017, the incidence of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old in China has decreased continuously, and the downward trend has slowed down. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis B in order to reduce the risk of hepatitis B.