| 灰色系统在肿瘤预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 何尚浦,吴兰芬,朱康民,梁明华,李国光.灰色系统在肿瘤预测中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报(医学版),1990(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 何尚浦 吴兰芬 朱康民 梁明华 李国光 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室
(何尚浦，朱康民)，武汉市硚口区卫生防疫站
(吴兰芬，梁明华)，同济医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室(李国光) |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色系统GM(1,1)模型是微分方程的动态模型。本文介绍了灰色系统的预测方法及其精度检验方法,并试用预测某地多种恶性肿瘤的死亡率。研究结果表明:食管癌、肺癌、结肠直肠癌、白血病和总肿瘤死亡率的预测效果较好。文中简略讨论了影响预测效果的因素。此系统具有减少时间序列的随机性,提高预测精度,无需典型概率分布资料,所需样本小等优点。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统模型 预测 癌 数学 |
Application of Grey Forecasting Method to the Prediction of Cancer Mortality |
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| He Shangpu,Wu Lanfen,Zhu Kangmin,Liang Minghua,Li Guoguang.Application of Grey Forecasting Method to the Prediction of Cancer Mortality[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Health Sciences),1990(1). |
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| Authors: | He Shangpu Wu Lanfen Zhu Kangmin Liang Minghua Li Guoguang |
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| Institution: | He Shangpu,Wu Lanfen,Zhu Kangmin,Liang Minghua,Li GuoguangDepartment of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Tongji Medical University,Wuhan. |
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| Abstract: | The grey model (GM) is the dynamic model with differential equation.In this paper,grey forecasting which is based on the grey model is used in the prediction of mortality of cancer.The method of grey forecasting and its precision tests are described with examples.The mortality rate of cancers at different sites is predicted.It was found that the predicted mortality rate of cancer of esophagus,lungs,colon and rectum,and leukemia is in agreement with the observed data,but the results of grey forecasting of other cancers are far from satisfactory.The results are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | grey systems forecasting carcinoma mathematics |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
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