应用灰色关联分析方法评价国家监测点在疟疾发病监测中的作用

Objective To evaluate the role of national sentinel surveillance on malaria trend. Methods The number (X0) of malaria cases of the surveillance provinces, counties, the whole country, and the surveillance provinces and counties broken down by 3 different areas,from annual reports in 2005-2008, were determined as the reference sequences and those of national sentinel sites from the web-based reporting system ( X1) and sentinel surveillance database (X2 ) as the comparative sequences accordingly, then the grey relational grades ( γOi) were calculated and sorted. Results Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the whole country, the surveillance provinces and counties as reference sequences, the grey relational grades were γ01 (0.6112) <γ02(0.7329) ,γ01 (0.6091) <γ02(0.7304) and γ01(0.6523) <γ02(0.7990) respectively. Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the surveillance provinces and counties by different areas as reference sequences, the grey relational grades in hyper-endemic areas were γ01 (0. 6163) < γ02 (0.7518) and γ01 (0.6766) <γ02(0. 8267) respectively. While they were γ01 (0. 6563) >γ02 (0. 6495) and γ01(0.5986) < γ02(0.6074) respectively in unstable-endemic areas, γ01 (0.6282) > γ02(0. 6190) and γ01 (0.5979) >γ02(0.5705) respectively in sporadic-endemic areas. Conclusion In general, the comparative sequences of national sentinel surveillance data were closer to the reference sequences, and the national sentinel surveillance could better reflect the malaria trend.

Application of grey relational analysis in evaluating the role of national sentinel surveillance on malaria trend