| 基于ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型的天津市卫生技术人员数量预测研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓鹏 辛怡 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津中医药大学管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC840046)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 预测天津市2019～2025年卫生技术人员配置数量,为制定卫生人力资源政策提供数据支持.方法 利用1978～2018年天津市卫生技术人员数量建立ARIMA(2,2,0)和GM(1,1)模型,对2019～2025年的卫生技术人员配置数量进行预测.结果 ARIMA(2,2,0)模型和GM(1,1)模型显示,2019～...
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| 关 键 词： | 人力预测研究 卫生技术人员 人力资源配置 ARIMA模型 GM(1 1)模型 |
Prediction of the number of health workers in Tianjin based on ARIMA and GM models |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiaopeng Xin Yi |
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| Institution: | (School of Management,Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Tianjin 301617,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To predict the number of health workers in Tianjin from 2019 to 2025 and thus provide data support to the development of policies of health human resources.Methods ARIMA(2,2,0)and GM(1,1)models were established based on the number of health workers in Tianjin from 1978 to 2018 to predict the number of health workers in the coming years.Results According to the two models used,the number of health workers in Tianjin would continue to rise from 2019 to 2025,and the numbers will reach 153,053 and 148,393,respectively,in 2025.Conclusions The average relative errors of ARIMA(2,2,0)and GM(1,1)models were 1.75%and 0.79%,respectively,and the GM(1,1)model had a better prediction performance.The prediction data can be used for improving the health personnel training and optimizing the allocation of health human resources. |
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| Keywords: | Manpower prediction study Health workers Human resource allocation ARIMA model GM(1 1)model |
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