Evaluation of community-wide interventions: the ecologic case-referent study design

In a setting of long-standing, community-wide and generally accepted prevention activities like youth health care services in The Netherlands, evaluative research in the form of experimental studies is hardly possible. Furthermore, as most interventions will bear fruit only after several years and the effects are often described in rather vague terms, even non-experimental study designs are fraught with possible difficulties. Although a study design using aggregate data is generally considered inferior or incomplete, in many cases, especially in health services research, this approach can be the only one feasible to evaluate the effectiveness of preventive programmes and interventions. In this article we present the ecologic case-referent design as a potentially expedient and valid method for estimating the ecologic effect of a population-wide intervention on the outcome rate in those populations. In this case-referent design, many variables are measured at the individual level, whereas the main exposure variable is measured at an aggregate or ecologic level. Using recently published studies as an example, the advantages and drawbacks of the design are discussed using the randomised controlled trial design as the referent study design.