修订版社区老年人跌倒危险评估工具的预测准确性评价

目的评价修订版社区老年人跌倒危险评估工具(MFROP-Com)预测跌倒的准确性,确定评估高危跌倒的最佳临界值。方法使用MFROP-Com对211名社区老年人进行跌倒危险评估,根据评估结果绘制受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线,评价其预测准确性。结果 MFROP-Com的ROC曲线下面积为0.862,当选取临界值为11.50时,工具预测效度的综合评价指标Youden指数最高为0.592,此时灵敏度为0.800,特异度为0.792,阳性预测值为80.7%,阴性预测值为78.4%。此评估工具评估老人跌倒与否与实际跌倒发生的一致性检验Kappa值为0.592。结论 MFROP-Com在社区老年人跌倒危险的筛查中具有合适的临界值、较高的预测准确性,是筛选高危跌倒人群的简便而可靠的评估工具。

Predictive accuracy of the Modified Falls Risk for Older People in the Community

Objective To identify the best critical value of the Modified Falls Risk for Older People in the Community(MFROP-Com) screening tool and to evaluate its accuracy for predicting falls.Methods Totally,211 community elders from four communities in Shanghai were assessed with MFROP-Com.Area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve were drawn according to results of MFROP-Com measurement to evaluate the predictive power of the tool.Results Area under the ROC curve was 0.862.When we took 11.50 as the critical value,the largest Youden index was 0.592,and the sensitivity was 0.800,the specificity was 0.792,positive predictive value was 80.7% and negative predictive value was 78.4%.The Kappa value of consistency test between predicted falls by the screening tool and real falls was 0.592.Conclusion The MFROP-Com screening tool has a good critical value and excellent predictive power,which is reliable and convenient in screening falls.