Incidence and trends in Kaposi's sarcoma in the era of effective antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of antiretroviral and antiherpesvirus therapies on the incidence of KS and assess trends in incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) in a large multicenter HIV/AIDS surveillance system between 1990 and 1998. METHODS: Incidence was calculated per 100 person-years (py); the effects of therapies on risk for KS were calculated by using multivariate Poisson regression controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, age, HIV exposure mode, CD4+ cell count, and calendar year. Antiretroviral therapy was defined as monotherapy, dual therapy, or triple therapy (95% of triple therapy regimens contained a protease inhibitor). Acyclovir, ganciclovir, and foscarnet were the antiherpesvirus therapies evaluated. RESULTS: There were 37,303 HIV-infected people in the study contributing 70,238 py. Those prescribed triple antiretroviral therapy had a 50% reduction in the incidence of KS (95% confidence interval, 20%-70%) compared with those who were not prescribed antiretroviral therapy and there was a reduction in risk for KS among persons prescribed foscarnet (p =.05). Overall, KS incidence declined an estimated 8.8% per year (observed incidence 4. 1 per 100 py in 1990 to 0.7 per 100 py in 1998; p <.001). CONCLUSION: Incidence of KS is declining in this large U.S. population and may continue to decline as new, more effective antiretroviral agents are developed and used widely.