应用灰色系统对乙型病毒性肝炎发病率的预测研究

目的:了解南宁市10年乙型病毒性肝炎发病情况,建立数学模型并进行预测,为预防和控制乙型病毒性肝炎提供科学依据。方法:收集并分析南宁市1996~2005年乙型病毒性肝炎疫情资料,建立发病率(1/10万)灰色系统GM(1,1)模型并进行预测。结果:10年来南宁市乙型病毒性肝炎发病率1999年最低为27.88/10万,2001年最高为52.82/10万。预测南宁市2008年、2010年乙型病毒性肝炎发病率分别为67.73/10万、77.59/10万。结论:针对乙型病毒性肝炎持续高流行态势,应不断加强防治工作力度,开展科学研究,制订防治策略,采取综合措施,积极控制乙型病毒性肝炎的流行与传播。

Prediction of the Risk Fators of Viral Bepatitis Type B by Grey System

Objective:To get the message of incidence of viral hepatitis type B in NanNing since 1996 to 2005,and to establish a mathematical model to make a forecast,so as to provide a scientific evidence for the prophylaxis and control of viral hepatitis type B.Method: Collecting and analyzing the data of epidemic situation of viral hepatitis type B since 1996~2005 in NanNing,establishing a grey system GM(1,1) of disease rate(1/100thousand) and making a forecast.Result: The lowest disease rate was 27.88/100thousand in 1999 in NanNing.The highest disease rate was 52.82/100 thousand in 2001.We make a forecast that the disease rate of viral hepatitis type B in 2008 in NanNing is 67.73/100thousand,and 77.59/100thousand in 2010.Conclusion: Viral hepatitis type B have a high epidemic.We should persistent enhance the work of prophylaxis and therapeutics,enhance the scientific investigation,formulate the strategy of prophylaxis and therapeutics,adopt a compositive measure,so as to control the epidemic and propagation of viral hepatitis type B.