Macdonald模型简介及其在疟疾流行区的应用

Macdonald模型是在Ross模型的基础上提出的,进一步发展了疟疾传播动力学理论。其基本繁殖率这一重要概念中的各项参数,为疟疾的流行病学调查和制订预防、控制措施提供了依据。在20世纪80年代,应用该模型对疟疾暴发流行区进行了广泛研究。近年来,中部地区疟疾有回升趋势,应用Macdonald模型对完善预警预报系统有重要作用。

The brief introduction of Macdonald model and its application

Macdonald model, based on the Ross model, advanced the dynamics theory of malaria transmission. All parameters in the important concept-basic reproduction rate provide science evidence for malaria epidemiologic research and disease control and prevention. In the 80's of the 20 century, Macdonald model was used widely in the malaria epidemic area. In recent years, incidence of malaria is increasing in the central part of China, Macdonald model could be a very useful tool on malaria early warning systems.