Estimation of the basic reproduction ratio (R0) for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) in beef calves

To understand the dynamics of transmission of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) in beef calves, serum samples were obtained from calves in a beef cow-calf herd approximately every 6 weeks from birth until weaning for three consecutive years. The presence of specific anti-O157 antibodies in these serum samples was detected using a blocking ELISA assay incorporating an anti-O157 monoclonal antibody. Using seroconversion data, the basic reproduction ratio (R0) was estimated for each of the three years as well as in aggregate using both deterministic and Martingale methods. R0 for STEC O157 infection in range beef calves by deterministic methods varied from 2.9-5.6, with an average of 4.3 (95% CI 2.8-5.9). Martingale estimates of R0 ranged from 3.5-7.4, or 5.3 (95% CI 3.9-6.6), for data from all three years. Given the above estimate of R0, it is predicted that 65-86% of a herd of calves must be effectively vaccinated, or must be rendered non-susceptible through other means, to eliminate STEC O157 infection from a herd.