Determinants of the effect of estrogen on the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis: Estrogen in the Prevention of Atherosclerosis Trial

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which the estrogen-induced changes in lipids and markers of carbohydrate metabolism explain the beneficial effect of estrogen therapy on the progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) in postmenopausal women. DESIGN: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center trial enrolling 222 postmenopausal women 45 years and older without cardiovascular disease and with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels of 3.37 mmol/L or greater (> or = 130 mg/dL). Intervention was unopposed micronized 17beta-estradiol versus placebo. Measurements were made using high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography to measure carotid artery IMT at baseline and every 6 months on-trial. RESULTS: Progression of carotid IMT was inversely related to on-trial high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (P = 0.04) and was directly related to on-trial LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.005). Compared with placebo, women randomized to estradiol showed a higher mean on-trial HDL-cholesterol level and a lower mean on-trial LDL-cholesterol level. In contrast, fasting glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1C were lowered and insulin sensitivity increased with estradiol therapy, but the changes were not related to carotid IMT progression. On-trial HDL-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol were significant independent determinants of carotid IMT progression, jointly explaining 30% of the treatment effect of unopposed estrogen on the progression of carotid IMT. CONCLUSION: Unopposed 17beta-estradiol reduced carotid IMT progression in postmenopausal women in part by increasing HDL-cholesterol and decreasing LDL-cholesterol. Although women randomized to estradiol showed improvement in all the markers of carbohydrate metabolism, these factors did not play a significant role in carotid IMT progression.