原发性心肌病流行趋势的灰色预测研究

应用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型对南京市区６０岁以下人群原发性心肌病的流行趋势做了拟合与预测分析，结果较满意。拟合的平均误差占实测值均数的１．６７％，拟合检验Ｒ２＝０．９７９２；外推预测的结果与调查结论基本相符。因此，可采用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型进行原发性心肌病的预测研究。

GREY FORECASTING STUDY OF THE EPIDEMIC TREND OF IDIOPATHIC CARDIOMYOPATHY

sing Grey Dynamic Model,epidemic trend of the idiopathic cardiomyopflthy was forecasted in the poptulation aged less than 60 years in Nanjing city. The average error of fitting was 1.67%of the acttial mean value. The result of forecasting was in agreement with the survery.Therefore, this model was feasible in the idiopathic cardiomyopathy forecasting.