Advertising bans as a means of tobacco control policy: a systematic literature review of time-series analyses

Summary Objectives: This paper reviews the international literature that employed time-series analysis to evaluate the effects of advertising bans on aggregate consumption of cigarettes or tobacco. Methods: A systematic search of the literature was conducted. Three groups of studies representing analyses of advertising bans in the USA, in other countries and in 22 OECD countries were defined. The estimated effects of advertising bans and their significance were analysed. Results: 24 studies were identified. They used a wide array of explanatory variables, models, estimating methods and data sources. 18 studies found a negative effect of an advertising ban on aggregate consumption, but only ten of these studies found a significant effect. Two studies using data from 22 OECD countries suggested that partial bans would have little or no influence on aggregate consumption, whereas complete bans would significantly reduce consumption. Conclusions: The results imply that advertising bans have a negative but sometimes only narrow impact on consumption. Complete bans let expect a higher effectiveness. Because of methodological restrictions of analysing advertising bans’ effects by time series approaches, also different approaches should be used in the future. Submitted: 1 February 2006, Revised: 16 May, 19 December 2006, Accepted: 9 February 2007