神经胶质瘤术后预后因素的研究

目的：探讨神经胶质瘤患者术后生存规律及其影响因素，并预测患者术后生存情况。方法：以图解法拟合患者术后生存时间的概率分布型；选择符合其分布的Weibull全参数模型分析影响患者术后生存的危险因素；通过残差分析检验所得到Weibull全参数模型，并进一步应用该模型预测患者的术后生存情况。结果：Weibull全参数模型显示性别、年龄、癫痫、肿瘤类型、肿瘤密度、手术方式、手术次数和术后治疗第8个因素是影响神经胶质瘤患者术后生存期的危险因素。根据患者预测值（PV）大小将患者聚为三类：第I类患者1年生存率不足50％；第Ⅱ类患者5年累计生存率接近50％；第Ⅲ类患者5年生存率为80％左右。结论：性别、年龄、癫痫、肿瘤类型、肿瘤密度、手术方式、手术次数和术后治疗等8个因素是影响神经胶质瘤患者术后生存期的危险因素。应用Weibull模型可以预测患者术后生存情况。

The application of Weibull parameter model to survival analysis of glioma

Objective To investigate the factors affecting the survival and to predict the survival time of glioma. Methods Graph method was applied to fit the type of probability distribution of patients' postoperative survival time. As one suitable model,Weibull regression model tested by residual analysis was used to identify prognostic factors for postoperative survival and to prognose patients' post-operative survival time. Results In multivariate analysis of Weibull regression model, following characteristics showed significant influence on postoperative survival time including: sex, age, epilepsy, type of glioma, density of glioma, type of surgery, times of surgery and mode of postoperative therapy.According to predictive value,patients were clustered into three groups. The survival probability of one year for the first group was less than 50% and that of five years for the second group about 50%,for the third group around 80%. Conclusion Sex, age, epilepsy, type of glioma, density of glioma, type of surgery, times of surgery and mode of postoperative therapy were important risk factors and Weibull regression model might help to prognose patients' postoperative survival time.