广州市2005～2013年肺癌发病趋势分析

目的分析广州市2005~2013年肺癌发病趋势，为广州市肺癌防治措施的制定提供依据。方法根据广州市2005~2013年肿瘤登记处收集的发病资料以及相应的人口数据，分别计算肺癌的性别、年龄别发病率、年龄调整发病率（世标率）、年度变化百分比（APC%），同时描述2005~2013年期间各年度肺癌的发病变化趋势。结果广州市2005-2013年肺癌发病共34873例，肺癌粗发病率和世标率分别为49.27/10万（其中男性65.44/10万，女性32.55/10万）和34.94/10万（其中男性49.68/10万，女性21.53/10万）。肺癌发病率随年龄增高而增长，在40岁开始迅速上升，80~84岁年龄组达到发病高峰为380.46/10万，85岁以上年龄组回落到307.08/10万。广州市2005~2013年肺癌粗发病率呈平稳增长态势，年度变化百分比为1.21%（95%CI:0.30%~2.10%），粗发病率变化趋势有统计学差异（P<0.05）。世标率呈平稳下降态势，年度变化百分比为-1.16%（95%CI:-1.90%~-0.40%），世标率变化趋势有统计学差异（P<0.05）。结论广州市2005-2013年肺癌粗发病率发病呈平稳增长趋势，主要原因是人口老龄化造成的，应积极加强有效的防治措施。

An Analysis of the Incidence Trend of Lung Cancer in Guangzhou,2005~2013

Objective: To investigate the incidence trend and the age distribution of lung cancer in Guangzhou from the year 2005 to 2013, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of lung cancer.Methods: The data during 2005~2013 were collected from the cancer registry and Municipal Public Security Bureau in Guangzhou.The crude incidence of lung cancer, age-specific incidence, age-standardized incidence and annual change were calculated respectively.Results: From 2005 to 2013, the total new cases of lung cancer were 34873, the crude incidence and the age-standardized incidence were 49.27/10.5(65.44/10.5 in male, 32.55/10.5 in female)and 34.94/10.5 (49.68/10.5 in male, 21.53/10.5 in female) respectively.The incidence of lung cancer increased with age.There was a dramatic increasing trend in the incidence after 40 years of age, which reached a peak in 80-84 years age group (380.46/10.5), and then declined after 85 years age group (307.08/10.5).During 2005~2013, the crude incidence of lung cancer was stable (APC=1.21%,95%CI:0.30%~2.10%, P<0.05), while age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer was decreased (APC=-1.16%,95%CI:0.30%~2.10%, P<0.05).Conclusion: Aging population is the main cause for increasing incidence of lung cancer in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2013.Effective cancer prevention and control should be carried out to reduce the incidence of lung cancer.