Prognostic usefulness of ultrasonographic signs of portal hypertension in patients with child-pugh stage A liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify factors related with mortality in patients with cirrhosis in the absence of habitual biochemical markers of liver dysfunction. METHODS: Seventy-five cirrhotic patients in Child-Pugh stage A, without hepatocellular carcinoma, were followed until death or the end of the study period. We analyzed the association between cumulative survival and 15 variables determined at the moment of inclusion: age, sex, time from diagnosis of cirrhosis, alcohol abuse, history of variceal bleeding, hepatitis B and C virus infection, Child-Pugh score, plasma albumin and bilirubin levels, prothrombin activity, and four sonographic parameters (size of liver, portal vein diameter, size of spleen, and presence of collateral circulation). RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 38.7+/-10 months. Eighteen patients died. Four-year cumulative survival was 77.4+/-5%. Only five variables had a significant influence on survival according to log-rank test: sex, previous variceal bleeding, hepatitis B virus infection, portal vein diameter, and size of the spleen. Multivariate Cox's model showed male sex (relative risk 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.2-16.8) and diameter of the portal vein > 13 mm, splenomegaly > 145 mm, or both together (relative risk 6.0; 95% confidence interval 1.3-27.2) as independent predictors of the risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Child-Pugh stage A cirrhotic patients have substantial variability in mid-term survival. Ultrasonography is a useful aid in establishing their prognosis. Men with dilation of the portal vein, splenomegaly, or both, form a group with a significantly higher risk of death.