Predictive Value of CEA for Survival in Stage I Rectal Cancer: a Population-Based Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Background

The aim of the study was to assess whether preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level is an independent predictor of overall- and cancer-specific survival in stage I rectal cancer.

Methods

Stage I rectal cancer patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2011. The impact of an elevated preoperative CEA level (C1-stage) compared with a normal CEA level (C0-stage) on overall and cancer-specific survival was assessed using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models and propensity score methods.

Results

Overall, 1932 stage I rectal cancer patients were included, of which 328 (17 %) patients had C1-stage. The 5-year overall and cancer-specific survival for patients with C0-stage were 85.7 % (95 % CI 83.2–88.2 %) and 94.7 % (95 % CI 93.1–96.3 %), versus 76.8 % (95 % CI 70.9–83.1 %) and 88.1 % (95 % CI 83.3–93.2 %) for patients with C1-stage (P?<?0.001 and P?=?0.001). The negative impact of C1-stage on overall and cancer-specific survival was confirmed by risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (hazard ratio HR]?=?1.57, 95 % CI?=?1.15–2.16, P?=?0.007 and 2.04, 95 % CI?=?1.25–3.33, P?=?0.006), and after propensity score matching (overall survival OS]: HR?=?1.46, 95 % CI?=?1.02–2.08, P?=?0.044 and cancer-specific survival CSS]: HR?=?3.28, 95 % CI?=?1.78–6.03, P?<?0.001).

Conclusion

This is the first population-based investigation of a large cohort of exclusively stage I rectal cancer patients providing compelling evidence that elevated preoperative CEA level is a strong predictor of worse overall and cancer-specific survival.