2012—2013年北京市流感样病例监测与流感病原学监测结果的相关性分析

目的通过分析2012—2013年北京市流感流行季（2012年9月--2013年4月）流感样病例监测与流感病原学监测结果的相关性，评价北京市一级以上医疗机构和二级以上医疗机构流感样病例监测工作的适用性和有效性。方法分析北京市421家一级以上医疗机构和144家二级以上医疗机构的流感样病例监测数据，按周次分别与北京市14家医疗机构开展的流感病原学监测数据进行相关性分析和回归检验。结果一级以上和二级以上医疗机构门急诊流感样病例百分比（ILI％）与流感病毒病原学监测中病毒分离阳性率成正相关（一级医院r=0．794，P〈0．001；二级医院r=0．787，P〈0．001）。一级以上和二级以上医疗机构ILI％与流感病毒分离阳性率的回归确定系数r2分别为0．630（P〈0．001）和0．620（P〈0．001）。结论一级以上和二级以上医疗机构流感样病例中归因为流感病毒感染的比例基本一致，从成本效益分析角度考虑，北京市利用144家二级以上医疗机构开展流感样病例监测已经可以满足对疾病监测的需要，比扩展到421家一级以上医疗机构具有更好的成本效益比。

The correlation analysis of influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza pathogen surveillance resuits in Beijing during 2012-2013 influenza season

Objective To analyze the correlation between the influenza-like illness surveillance re- suits and tile influenza pathogen surveillance results in Beijing during 2012 - 2013 influenza season （ From September 2012 to April 2013 ） , the application and effectiveness of influenza-like illness surveillance work of level one above and level two above medical institutions in Beijing were analyzed. Methods Influenza- like illness surveillance data at 421 level one above medical institutions and 144 level two above medical institutions in Beijing were analyzed. And on weekly basis, correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted in comparison to influenza pathogen surveillance data developed at 14 medical institutions in Beijing. Results Influenza-like illness percentage （ILI%） at level one above and level two above medical institution wass in positive relation to influenza virus pathogen surveillance virus isolation positive rate （level one r = 0. 794, P 〈 0. 001 ; level two r = 0. 787, P 〈 0. 001 ） ; level one above and level two above medical institutions ILl% and influenza vinJs isolation positive rate regression determination coefficient were 0. 630 （ P 〈 0. 001 ） and 0. 620 （ P 〈 0. 001 ）, respectively. Conclusions According to the benefit analysis, 144 level two above medical institutions carrying out influenza-llke illness surveillance can meet the need of illness monitoring. It possesses better benefit-cost ratio than expanding to 421 level one above medical institutions.