我国全沟硬蜱适生区预测

目的　分析不同环境因子对我国全沟硬蜱分布的影响，预测我国全沟硬蜱未来适生区。方法　通过查阅国内外公开发表文献，提取我国已知全沟硬蜱分布点信息。采用刀切法评价年均温、月均温范围、等温性、年均温变化范围、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年平均降水量、降水的季节性、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量、海拔、坡度、坡向和植被等14个环境因子对我国全沟硬蜱分布的影响。结合环境因子，运用最大熵模型与ArcGIS 10.7软件预测全沟硬蜱在我国的适生区范围。结果　我国当前全沟硬蜱高适生区面积88.66万km2，主要位于东北地区。对我国全沟硬蜱适生区分布贡献率超过10%的环境因子包括年温度变化范围（39.1%）、最冷季度降水量（23.2%）、年平均降水量（11.9%）。基于最大熵模型预测发现，2070年我国全沟硬蜱适生区将呈向东北方向缩小的趋势。结论　我国全沟硬蜱适生区分布范围与温度、降水密切相关，气候环境改变可能引起我国全沟硬蜱未来适生区分布范围缩小。

Prediction of suitable habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in China

Objective　To evaluate the effects of environmental factors the distribution of Ixodes persulcatus, and to predict the future suitable habitats of I. persulcatus in China. Methods　The known distribution sites of I. persulcatus in China were captured from national and international published literatures. The effects of 14 environmental factors on the distribution of I. persulcatus were examined using the Jackknife test, including mean annual temperature, mean monthly temperature range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation. The suitable habitats of I. persulcatus were predicted in China using the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS 10.7 software with the environmental factors. Results　Currently, the highly suitable habitats of I. persulcatus covered an area of 886 600 km2 in China, which were predominantly located in northeastern China. The environmental factors that contributed more than 10% to the distribution of the suitable habitats of I. persulcatus in China included annual temperature variation range (39.1%), the coldest quarterly precipitation (23.2%), and the annual mean precipitation (11.9%). Based on the maximum entropy model, the suitable habitats of I. persulcatus were predicted to show a shrinking tendency towards northeastern China in 2070. Conclusions　The suitable habitat of I. persulcatus strongly correlates with temperature and precipitation, and climate and environmental changes may lead to shrinking of the future suitable habitat of I. persulcatus in China.