Laboratory data predicts survival post hospitalization |
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Authors: | L. B. Siemr M. J. Easterling B. Mons A. Brown |
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Affiliation: | Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA 94143, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | From a database of 93,077 in-patient admissions, patients assigned to catastrophic, very severe, moderately severe, and average 30-day mortality risk categories (as defined in Medicare Hospital Mortality Information, 1989 release, from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA)) were selected for study. These admissions account for 30% of all admissions, but 70% of. all deaths up to 1 year post admission. To determine whether laboratory information adds to the predictive power of the information used by HCFA, we compare the performance of 1 year survival predictors (Cox model) that use only diagnostic, demographic, and comorbidity information, with the performance of predictors that also include laboratory information. Using a separate set of patients not used for model definition, we find that laboratory data contain significant prognostic information independent of that already available in non-laboratory data. In HCFA's catastrophic disorders for example, non-laboratory information reduces the average risk of predicting a wrong outcome by 17% relative to considering only catastrophic group membership, and adding,laboratory data reduces this risk by a further 21%. These improvements result primarily from considering the outcomes of a small set of routine laboratory tests (maximum BUN, AST, and WBC, and minimum CO2, hematocrit, and sodium). |
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Keywords: | Author Keywords: Case-mix Mortality Survival Clinical laboratory Severity of illness ICD9 comorbidity Cox model Validation |
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