Caprini 2005风险评估模型在脑卒中急性期患者中的应用价值评价

目的 评价Caprini 2005风险评估模型对脑卒中急性期深静脉血栓形成（DVT）的诊断价值与临床可操作性。方法 采用前瞻性研究,选取2018年11月至2019年11月期间于苏州大学附属第一医院就诊的489例脑卒中急性期患者,以彩色多普勒超声检查作为DVT诊断金标准,应用Caprini 2005风险评估模型对患者进行风险评估。结果 Caprini 2005风险评估模型的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.761（95%CI: 0.720 0.798,P<0.01）,当临界值取11分时,对应的最佳灵敏度与特异度为78.87%和66.51%。该模型的条目利用率为60.0%,存在16条评估条目利用率为0。结论 Caprini 2005风险评估模型的诊断价值中等,但临床可操作性不佳,其危险分层的最佳临界值与评估条目需适当调整。

Application value of caprini 2005 risk assessment model in patients with acute stroke

Objective To evaluate the diagnostic value and clinical operability of Caprini 2005 Risk Assessment Model for deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in patients with acute stroke. Methods A prospective study was conducted on 489 patients with acute stroke who were selected from First Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from Nov. 2018 to Nov. 2019. Color Doppler ultrasound was used as the gold standard for DVT diagnosis, and Caprini 2005 Risk Assessment Model was used to assess the risk of the patients. Results The area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) of Caprini 2005 Risk Assessment Model was 0.761（95%CI: 0.720 0.798, P<0.0001). When the cut off point was 11, the sensitivity and specificity were 78.87% and 66.51%, respectively. The item utilization rate of Caprini Risk Assessment Model was 60.0%, and there were 16 evaluation items with the utilization rate of 0. Conclusion Caprini 2005 Risk Assessment Model has moderate diagnostic value, but its clinical operability is not good.The critical value and evaluation items of the model need to be adjusted appropriately.