广东省四城市气温与流行性腮腺炎发病关联的时间序列研究

目的 了解广东省东莞、佛山、广州和深圳市气温对流行性腮腺炎（简称“流腮”）发病的影响。方法 收集4个城市2005—2018年流腮发病与气象数据,利用分布滞后非线性模型,在控制时间趋势、星期几效应、相对湿度和气压等混杂因素下,研究不同城市气温与流腮发病的关系。最后分别比较低温（日均气温的第5百分位数）和高温（日均气温的第95百分位数）对不同年龄别和性别人群流腮发病的冷热效应。结果 4个城市2005—2018年共报告流腮病例212 109例,日均气温中位数为23 ℃~25 ℃。4个城市气温与流腮日发病例数的总体效应关系呈倒“S”形的非线性关系。男性的冷效应（RR=1.131,95%CI：1.018~1.256）略高于女性（RR=1.093,95%CI：0.955~1.251）,女性的热效应（RR=1.014,95%CI：1.001~1.026）略高于男性（RR=1.009,95%CI：0.997~1.022）,但差异均无统计学意义（P>0.05）;6~17岁青少年的冷效应（RR=1.476,95%CI：1.300~1.677）和热效应（RR=1.020,95%CI：1.006~1.034）最高,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论 日均气温与流腮的发病呈非线性关系,可能是流腮发病的重要影响因素。6~17岁青少年是气温较为敏感的人群,应重点关注这些人群。

Relationship between ambient temperature and mumps incidence in four cities of Guangdong Province:a time-serie study

Objective To explore the impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of mumps in Dongguan,Foshan,Guangzhou and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province. Methods Daily meteorology data and mumps cases from2005-2018 were collected in Dongguan,Foshan,Guangzhou and Shenzhen City. Then the city-specific relationship between ambient temperature and mumps was assessed based on distributed lag non-linear model,controlling the time trend,day of the week,relative humidity and pressure for confounding factors. Finally,the cold and heat effects of low temperature(the 5 thpercentile of daily temperature)and high temperature(the 95 thpercentile of daily temperature)on the incidence of mumps in different age and genders were compared.Results There were 212 109 mumps cases reported in four cities during 2005-2018. The daily median temperature was 23 ℃~25 ℃. The overall effect of ambient temperature on the incidence of mumps in four cities showed an inverted S-shape. The cold effect was slightly higher for male(RR=1.131,95%CI:1.018-1.256)than female(RR=1.093,95%CI:0.955-1.251),while heat effect was slightly higher for female(RR=1.014,95%CI:1.001-1.026)than male(RR=1.009,95%CI:0.997-1.022),but there were no statistical significance(P>0.05). The cold effect(RR=1.476,95%CI:1.300-1.677)and heat effect(RR=1.020,95%CI:1.006-1.034)were higher for adolescents aged 6-17 years old,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05). Conclusion The relationship between ambient temperature and the incidence of mumps is non-linear. Ambient temperature may be an important predictor of the incidence of mumps. Adolescents aged 6-17 years old are more sensitive to ambient temperature,whom more attention should be paid to.