全面二孩政策实施前后广东省流动妇女二孩生育意愿研究

目的 了解全面二孩政策实施前后广东省已婚流动妇女二孩生育意愿并分析全面二孩政策对其二孩生育意愿的影响。方法 基于2014年和2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查广东省数据,采用倾向性评分加权法均衡不同年度调查对象的协变量差异后,使用多分类Logistic模型探索全面二孩政策对已婚流动妇女二孩生育意愿的影响。结果 全面二孩政策实施后提升了流动妇女的二孩生育意愿,且对于政策实施前不符合生育二孩政策的人群,政策效果更明显（OR_不符合=5.35,95%CI：4.55~6.29;OR_符合=1.61,95%CI：1.36~1.90）。政策实施后流动妇女不愿意再生育的原因主要与经济因素和婴幼儿照护压力有关。结论 全面二孩政策实施后已婚流动妇女的二孩生育意愿明显提升,但仍有待提高。今后应积极探索缓解生育经济负担和发展婴幼儿照护服务在提升二孩生育意愿中的作用。

The second fertility desire of migrant women in Guangdong before and after the universal two-child policy

Objective To investigate the second fertility desire of married migrant women before and after the universal two-child policy,and examine the effect of the universal two-child policy on the second fertility desire of them. Methods This study used data from National Internal Migrant Dynamic Monitoring Survey in Guangdong Province in 2014 and 2016. Propensity score weighting analysis was conducted to balance the differences of covariates between participants interviewed in different years, and multinomial Logistic regression models were performed to examine the effect of universal two-child policy on second fertility desire among married migrant women. Results The second fertility desire of married migrant women was raised after the implementation of universal two-child policy, and for those who did not conform to the two-child policy before the implementation of the policy, the effect of the universal two-child policy was greater（OR_{not allow}=5.35,95%CI： 4.55-6.29; OR_allow=1.61,95%CI： 1.36-1.90）. Economic burden andchild care were the main reasons that impede their second fertility desire. Conclusion After the implementation of the universal two-child policy, the second fertility desire of married migrant women hasbeen significantly increased, but it still needs to be improved.The roles of alleviating the economic burden of reproduction and developing infant care services in improving the second fertility desire of migrant women should be explored in the future.