MELD-Na联合公式评估肝硬化失代偿期患者短期预后的价值

目的评价血清钠与终末期肝病模型的联合公式（MELD—Na）在评估肝硬化失代偿期患者短期预后方面的能力。方法114例各种病因的肝硬化失代偿患者，分别计算每位患者的MELD—Na评分，同时计算其Child—Turcotte—Pugh（CTP）评分，并随访3个月的生存率。并以受试者工作曲线（ROC）下面积衡量MELD—Na、CTP评分预测患者预后的能力。结果MELD—Na在判断患者3个月生存时问的ROC曲线的AUC大于0．8，且大于CTP相应的AUC。结论MELD—Na评分能很好地预测肝硬化患者的短期预后，其评估价值要强于CTP评分，值得临床推广应用。

Predictive Value of MELD-Na Scoring System for Decompensated Hepatic Cirrhosis

Objective To evaluate the value of MELD-Na scoring system for decompensated hepatic cirrhosis. Methods The data from 114 cases of liver cirrhosis were retrospectively analyzed. The cases were divided into the survival group and the death group. MELD-Na and CTP were calculated. The values of MELD-Na scoring system and CTP scoring system were evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic（Roc） curves. Results The area under curve（AUC）value generated by the ROC curves for MELD-Na score was higher（AUC=0.975） than that of CTP score（AUC=O.851）. Conclusion CTP scoring system and MELD-Na scoring system can predict the prognosis of decompensated hepatic cirrhosis,in which the MELD-Na scoring system is the best.