| 遗传毒理学试验预测致癌物的成本效益分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 方积乾,王纪宪,周宗灿,傅娟龄. 遗传毒理学试验预测致癌物的成本效益分析[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 1990, 0(5) |
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| 作者姓名： | 方积乾 王纪宪 周宗灿 傅娟龄 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京医科大学生物数学与生物统计学教研室(方积乾，王纪宪)，北京医科大学卫生毒理学教研室(周宗灿)，北京医科大学卫生毒理学教研室(傅娟龄) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对检测致癌物的遗传毒理试验与动物致癌试验相结合的序贯判别方法进行成本-效益分析。结果表明,这种方法具有显著的社会经济效益。如忽略各遗传毒理试验间的不独立性,并设致癌性先验概率为0.1,则遗传毒理学试验次数可限制在5次左右。当受试物致癌性的后验概率小于0.03时判为非致癌物,大于0.7时判为致癌物。
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| 关 键 词： | 遗传毒理学试验 成本效益分析 序贯判别分析 |
COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF PREDICTING CARCINOGENS WITH GENOTOXICITY TESTS |
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| Fang Jiqian,et al. COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF PREDICTING CARCINOGENS WITH GENOTOXICITY TESTS[J]. Journal of Peking University. Health sciences, 1990, 0(5) |
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| Authors: | Fang Jiqian et al |
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| Affiliation: | Fang Jiqian,et al Department of Biomathematics and Biostatistcs |
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| Abstract: | Cost-effectiveness of a sequential discriminant method has been analysed for the prediction ofcarcinogenicity of chemicals with batteries of genotoxicity assays and animal assay. The results suggestthat this method has evident social economic efficiency. The number of genotoxicity assays should beless than 5 if the dependency between results of the assays can be ignored and the prior probability ofcarcinogenicity is 0.1. chemical should be considered as a carcinogen if its posterior probabilty ofcarcinogenicity is more than 0.7 and considered as noncarcinogen if the posterior probability is lessthan 0.03. |
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| Keywords: | Genotoxicity assay Cost-effectiveness analysis Sequential discriminant analysis |
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