灰色预测模型在广州市白云区水痘防控工作中的应用

目的建立灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测2014年广州市白云区水痘发病率,为制订白云区水痘防控策略提供依据。方法根据中国疾病预防控制信息系统中广州市白云区2006~2013年的水痘年发病率资料建立灰色预测模型,并对2014年白云区水痘发病率进行预测。结果2006~2013年白云区年均发病率为99.95/10万,发病主要集中在幼托儿童和学生,运用灰色模型预测2014年白云区水痘发病率为92.21/10万,检验预测精度为优秀。结论通过灰色模型预测2014年白云区水痘发病趋势仍保持在较高水平,加强对学生、托幼儿童等重点人群的水痘防控仍不能松懈。

Application of grey model for prediction of chicken pox incidence in Baiyun District of Guangzhou

Objective To set up the grey model GM（1,1） for predicting the incidence of chicken pox in Baiyun District in 2014. Methods The grey model was set up using the data of varicella incidence obtained from China Information System for Diseases Control And Prevention（CISDCP） and used to predict the varicella incidence in Baiyun District in 2014. Results The incidence rate of varicella in Baiyun district during 2006-2014 was 99.95/100 1300 mainly involving scattered children. The grey model could accurately predict varicella incidence in Baiyun district as it was predicted that the varicella incidence in Baiyun District in 2014 would reach 92.21/100 000. Conclusion The grey mode could be used for prediction the trend of varicella incidence and based on the prediction of the grey model varicella incidence in Baiyun District in 2014 will remain at a relatively high level. The prevention and control measures be strengthened.