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上海市医院入院人数的灰色预测研究
引用本文:李红艳,万萍.上海市医院入院人数的灰色预测研究[J].现代医院管理,2020(2):1-5.
作者姓名:李红艳  万萍
作者单位:;1.上海工程技术大学管理学院
基金项目:国家社会科学基金“建设健康中国问题研究”(16BJY001);教育部重大课题攻关项目“中国健康人力资本的测量与预测研究”(15JZD028);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJCZH043);上海市科委软科学重点项目资助(17692109200)。
摘    要:目的应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测上海市医院入院人数的动态变化趋势,为现代医院的科学管理提供理论基础。方法利用上海市医院2007—2017年入院人数的相关数据,通过Matlab软件建立GM(1,1)模型,对入院人数进行预测。结果建立的灰色预测模型为(1)(k+1)=1933.5292e0.089904k-1789.7792,入院人数模型的平均相对误差为0.92%,C=0.0852、P=1,该模型精度为优,预测效果好。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型能够较为准确地预测上海市医院入院人数在时间序列上的变动趋势,为现代医院提高医疗卫生资源利用率提供保障。

关 键 词:GM(1  1)  预测  入院人数

Study on Grey Prediction of Hospital Inpatients Numberin Shanghai
LI Hong-yan,WAN Ping.Study on Grey Prediction of Hospital Inpatients Numberin Shanghai[J].Modern Hospital Management,2020(2):1-5.
Authors:LI Hong-yan  WAN Ping
Institution:(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)
Abstract:Objective:The grey GM(1,1)model is used to predict the dynamic trend of the number of hospital inpatients in Shanghai,which provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management of modern hospitals.Method:Based on the relevant data of the number of hospital admissions in Shanghai from 2007 to 2017,the GM(1,1)model was established by Matlab software to predict the number of hospital admissions.Result:The established grey prediction model was(k+1)=1933.5292e-1789.7792.The average relative error of the model for the number of hospital admissions was 0.92%,C=0.0852,P=1.The model had excellent accuracy and good prediction effect.Conclusion:The grey GM(1,1)model can accurately predict the time series variation trend of the number of hospital inpatients in Shanghai and provide guarantee for modern hospitals to improve the utilization rate of medical and health resources.
Keywords:GM(1  1)  prediction  number of hospital admission
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