Neurosurgery workforce in Canada, 1996 to 2011. Canadian Neurosurgical Society.

OBJECTIVE. To determine the number of neurosurgeons in clinical practice in Canada on Jan. 1, 1996, and their practice profile and to determine requirements for 2001 and 2011. DESIGN. Telephone survey and national mail survey. SETTING. Canada. PARTICIPANTS. All 174 neurosurgeons in Canada engaged in active clinical practice on Jan. 1, 1996, and all residents enrolled in neurosurgery training programs in Canada during the 1995-96 academic year. OUTCOME MEASURES. Demographic characteristics, full-time equivalents, workload, attrition, reasons for exit, vacancies, supply and shortfall. RESULTS. All 174 neurosurgeons responded to the survey. There is a chronic shortage of 25 neurosurgeons in Canada. Sixty-two established neurosurgeons will have stopped practice by 2001 and 181 by 2011. They will need to be replaced, for a total requirement of 87 and 206 neurosurgeons by 2001 and 2011 respectively. Canadian neurosurgery training programs can currently generate only up to 69 and 177 graduates by 2001 and 2011 respectively. During the period 1985-95, 50% of neurosurgery graduates emigrated from Canada within 2 years of obtaining certification, creating potential deficits of up to 52 and 117 neurosurgeons by 2001 and 2011 respectively. CONCLUSIONS. Strategies need to be developed quickly to address not only the chronic shortfall but also the attrition of established neurosurgeons. Strategies to increase and retain the number of Canadian neurosurgery graduates are also needed.