健康指标对老年人发生死亡预测价值的前瞻性研究

目的 探讨日常生活自理能力(生活依赖)、健康自评及认知功能等健康评价指标对老年人死亡的预测价值。方法 1992年采取分层、整群、随机抽取样本,问卷调查3257例55岁以上人群,并于1994、1997和2000年对该样本进行随访,8年累计死亡1155例,失访399例。对死亡与生存的相关因素进行对比分析。结果 老年人死亡与生存在性别、年龄、文化及地区上存在明显不同。有生活依赖、健康自评差和认知水平低的老年人死亡危险性高。控制混杂因素(性别、年龄、文化、地区及慢性病史)后,上述趋势依然存在。进一步分析在控制生活依赖以外的所有因素,结果生活依赖与死亡存在独立的关系,联系更密切(OR=2.279,95％CI:1.573～3.302)。以相同的方法分析健康自评和认知功能也存在同样的结果(健康自评较差者OR=1.920,95％CI:1.412～2.412;认知功能异常者OR=1.888,95％CI:1.316～2.709)。结论 老年人日常生活能力、健康自评以及认知功能分别对死亡有较高的预测价值,它们对死亡既有共同作用,也是相对独立的预测指标。对于评估老年人的健康预后及生活质量具有重要的应用价值。

Evaluation of predictive effect of some health-related indices on deaths among ageing residents through a 8-years' follow-up study in Beijing

OBJECTIVE: To study the predictive effects of some health status indicators to deaths in the elderly population. METHODS: In 1992, a cohort of 3257 people older than 55 years old was formed from Beijing urban and suburb area. Demographic and information of activity of daily living (ADL), self-rated health (SRH), chronic diseases history and other related variables were collected at baseline survey in 1992. MMSE and CES-D were studied in 2101 on 3257 elderly people. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 1994, 1997 and 2000, to find that a total number of or= 75), resident place (suburb) and education level (illiteracy). The functional disability, poor self-rated health status, history of chronic diseases and abnormal cognition function were the major predictors of deaths. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that after adjustment for sex, age, residential place, education level and history of chronic diseases, functional disability, poor self-rated health status and abnormal cognition function remained as significant independent predictors to death. CONCLUSIONS: Functional disability, poor self-rated health status and abnormal cognition function were the most valuable indicators of death. Not only they had joined predictive effects to death, but also remained relatively independent. They had important value in the evaluation on healthy prognosis and the life quality of the elderly.