应用圆形分布探讨我国流行性脑脊髓膜炎的发病季节和流行趋势

目的分析我国2004～2008年度流行性脑脊髓膜炎（流脑）发病季节性特点和流行趋势,为制定流脑预防控制策略提供依据。方法分地区和流行年度按周统计发病数,用圆形分布法分析流脑季节性分布和流行趋势。结果我国各流行年度流脑发病具有明显的季节性（P〈0.01）,各流行年度和各地区流脑发病高峰日不全相同（P〈0.01）,流脑年度发病率与季节性无关。结论在流脑发病高峰期前加强监测,做好以预防接种为主的综合性防制工作。

Analysis of Prevalence Season and Trend of Meningococcal Disease by Circular Distribution in China

Objective To analyze the prevalence season and trend of meningococcal disease in China by epidemic years from 2004 to 2008 in order to provide scientific basis for making strategies of meningococcal disease prevention and control. Methods The incidence numbers of meningococcal disease were calculated by weeks, epidemic years and areas.The seasonality and prevalence trends of meningococcal disease were analyzed by circular distribution. Results The incidence trend of meningococcal disease had obvious seasonality in China （P〈0.01）. The peak of meningococcal disease were different by epidemic years and areas （P〈0.01）. There were no association between annual incidence rates and seasonality. Conclusions We should strength meningococcal disease surveillance before epidemic peak period,and put immunoprophylaxis first and carry out comprehensive measures of prevention and control.