Duodenal ulcer

In 1958 the Yale freshman class gave blood samples as part of a study intended to determine the predictive value of plasma pepsinogen (PP) for the subsequent development of duodenal ulcer (DU). We report a long-term follow-up of this cohort. A selfadministered questionnaire designed to ascertain information about the development of peptic ulcers, and the presence of risk factors was mailed to 861 subjects with active addresses. A second questionnaire was mailed to each respondent's physician(s) to verify the diagnosis of DU. Completed questionnaires were returned, after three mailings, by 604 (70%) of the subjects. They reported 18 documented DUs, 15 since 1958, for an incidence of 1.1/1000 person years. Only smoking (P<0.05) and undergraduate physical inactivity (P<0.01) were identified as risk factors for DU. Family history; blood type; blood antigen secretor status; ingestion of coffee, alcohol, milk, salicylates, soda, or tea; and COPD were not identified as risk factors for DU. Patients with DU had higher mean PP values than those who did not (391.6±99.6 vs 346.6±106.7, mean ±sd) but this was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The predictive value of an elevated PP(>450) for the development of DU was 7.9%, but a low or normal PP predicted the absence of a DU in 97.5% of subjects over a 22-year span. We conclude that in a selected population followed for 22 years there is a low incidence of DU, supporting the general belief that duodenal ulcer is declining, that smoking and undergraduate physical inactivity are risk factors for duodenal ulcer, and that a low or normal PP may be useful as a predictor for a low susceptibility to duodenal ulcer disease.Dr. J. Chuong acknowledges the support of the Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholar Program, and the Daland Fellowship in Clinical Medicine of the American Philosophical Society.