基于德尔菲法和层次分析法在洪涝灾害公共卫生风险评估中的应用

目的 开展洪涝灾害公共卫生风险评估，确定现阶段需要优先控制的公共卫生问题，为指导做好卫生应急准备提供科学依据。方法 通过查阅文献和专家咨询收集洪涝灾害公共卫生风险问题，采用德尔菲法筛选安徽省洪涝灾害发生时的风险问题；运用层次分析法，使用澳大利亚/新西兰风险分析模型构建层次结构模型和判断矩阵，运用专家会商确定判断矩阵的赋值；计算各层权重及总权重，并进行权值排序，得出风险问题顺位。结果 安徽省2016年洪涝灾害风险最大的为食源性疾病，其次为皮肤病，其他风险问题的风险顺位依次为伤害、急性结膜炎、其他感染性腹泻、血吸虫病、痢疾、流行性出血热、钩端螺旋体病和霍乱。结论 根据评估结果针对不同风险问题的风险顺位开展合适的卫生应急准备，从而有效地应对洪涝灾害发生时的公共卫生风险。

Application of Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods in assessment of public health risk of flood disaster

Objective To conduct public health risk assessment of flood disaster, determine the public health priority at present, and provide scientific evidence for the preparedness of public health emergency response. Methods The public health problems caused by flood disaster were found through literature review and expert consulting, and Delphi method was used to screen public health problems. Australia/New Zealand risk analysis model was used to construct the hierarchy model and evaluate the judgment matrix. The weight of each layer and the total weight, and sort the weight of problems were calculated. Results The highest risk caused by flood disaster was food poisoning, followed by skin disease, in Anhui in 2016, the other risks included injury, acute conjunctivitis, the other infectious diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, bacterial dysentery, epidemic hemorrhagic fever, leptospirosis and cholera. Conclusion According to the result of risk assessment, the different public health emergency response preparedness should be carried out to address the risks at different stages.