2017年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2017年6月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（直辖市、自治区）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据，预计6月全国报告事件数和病例数将较5月有所下降，事件类别主要以发生在学校的水痘、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病等为主。预计6月仍将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例，发病强度仍可能高于往年同期，不排除出现该亚型禽流感聚集性病例以及人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。近期我国仍有可能出现登革热、寨卡病毒病、黄热病等蚊媒传染病的输入性病例，存在输入后发生本地传播的可能。手足口病仍将处于高发季节。食物中毒事件将会增多，以微生物性食物中毒为主。结论 2017年6月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似，将较5月有所下降；需关注人感染禽流感、蚊媒传染病、手足口病、霍乱等传染病疫情及食物中毒引发的公共卫生风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and diseases concerned in the mainland of China,June 2017

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in June 2017.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in June would be lower than that in May.The most public health emergencies in June would be the outbreaks of varicella,hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD),mumps and other infectious diarrhea in schools.Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to be reported with a higher epidemic level than previous years,and there might be the possibility of clustering of human infections with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza virus.The risk of importation of vector borne diseases,including dengue fever,Zika virus disease and yellow fever,still exists,and local transmission following the importation might occur.It is still a season when HFMD is prone to occur.The incidence of food poisoning would increase,mainly caused by microorganisms.Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in June would be lower than that in May,similar to the same period in previous years.Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus,mosquito borne diseases,HFMD and food poisoning.