| MARKOV模型对具有波动性特征传染病发病趋势短期预测的初步探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘世安,李晓松,苏茜,周先锋,杨莹,冯子健.MARKOV模型对具有波动性特征传染病发病趋势短期预测的初步探讨[J].现代预防医学,2010,37(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘世安 李晓松 苏茜 周先锋 杨莹 冯子健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,成都,610041
2. 中国疾病预防控制中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]初步探讨MARKOV模型对于具有波动性特征传染病短期预测的效果及其适用性。方法]分别采用四川省2004~2007年不同时段的淋病月发病率数据建立MARKOV模型并检验预测效果。结果]不同时段建立的MARKOV模型预测结果与实际结果存在较明显差别。结论]MARKOV模型对于具有较长时间序列数据和具有波动性特征慢性传染病的短期预测具有较好的效果,时序越长,预测结果越可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | MARKOV模型 波动性特征 短期预测 淋病 |
STUDY ON THE MARKOV MODEL ON SHORT-TERM PREDICTION FOR THE TRENDS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES WITH VOLATILITY CHARACTERISTICS BY |
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| LIU Shi-an,LI Xiao-song,SU Xi,et al..STUDY ON THE MARKOV MODEL ON SHORT-TERM PREDICTION FOR THE TRENDS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES WITH VOLATILITY CHARACTERISTICS BY[J].Modern Preventive Medicine,2010,37(10). |
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| Authors: | LIU Shi-an LI Xiao-song SU Xi |
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| Institution: | LIU Shi-an,LI Xiao-song,SU Xi,et al. (West China School of Public Health,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] To preliminary discussion on the effect and application of MARKOV model on short-term prediction for the infectious diseases with volatility characteristics. Methods] The MARKOV models were developed based on the monthly incidence of gonorrhea in Sichuan in different periods, and the prediction effect were tested. Results] The prediction effect of the MARKOV models based on the incidence in different periods had significant effect when compared with the actual results. Conclusion] MARKOV mode... |
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| Keywords: | MARKOV model Volatility characteristics Short-term forecasting Gonorrhea |
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