灰色模型GM（1,1,0.2）在医学统计预测中的应用

目的 论述灰色模型ＧＭ（１，１，０．２），方法 我们整理某地１０年疟疾发病率，采用灰色模型ＧＭ（１，１，０．２）进行预测。结果 通过推导把复杂的矩阵运算转化为直接代入公式进行计算，这样对于不具备矩阵知识的广大统计工作者都可应用本模型进行预测分析。结论 在统计预测中该模型是良好的预测模型。

The Application of Grey Model GM(1,1,0.2) in Medical Statistics Forecast

Objective To discuss the grey model GM(1,1,0.2). Methods We treat the incidence of malaria during 10 years in one area statistically and apply grey model GM(1,1,0.2) to forecast. Results We can turn the complicated matris forecast into the simple formula so that most of statistics workers unfamiliar with matris may use this model to do some predictive works. Conclusion This model is a good one to do some predictive works in statistics.