| ARIMA模型及其在麻疹发病率预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘刚,单芙香.ARIMA模型及其在麻疹发病率预测中的应用[J].数理医药学杂志,2011,24(4):379-382. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘刚 单芙香 |
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| 作者单位： | 深圳市疾病预防控制中心,深圳,518020 |
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| 基金项目： | 2009年深圳市科技计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:探讨应用时间序列ARIMA模型对麻疹发病率预测的可行性,为预防和控制麻疹提供依据。方法:采用SPSS17.0对深圳市2002~2007年麻疹月发病的资料建立ARIMA模型,并对预测效果进行评价。结果:建立模型ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12是合适的,Q统计量计算方法,Q=16.34,P>0.05。结论:ARIMA模型能很好的模拟深圳市麻疹发病率的变动趋势,预测效果可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 麻疹 预测 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 |
Application of ARIMA Model in Forecast Incidence of Measles |
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| Liu Gang,et al.Application of ARIMA Model in Forecast Incidence of Measles[J].Journal of Mathematical Medicine,2011,24(4):379-382. |
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| Authors: | Liu Gang |
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| Institution: | Liu Gang,et al(Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518020) |
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| Abstract: | Objective： To explore the feasibility of auto regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model and to develop scientific basis for prevention and control measles. Method： ARIMA model was established based on the measles incidence in Shenzhen from 2002 to 2007 and the prediction effect was evaluated by SPSS13.0 software. Results： The model of ARIMA（1,1,0）Х （0,1,1）12 was established. The statistic of Q was 16.34（P〉0.05）, verifying the applicability of this mode, Conclusion： ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of measles and predict the future measles incidence in future. |
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| Keywords: | measles prediction time series ARIMA model |
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