北京市蚊虫密度与气象因素关系的研究

目的研究对北京市蚊虫密度产生影响的主要气象因素并分析其影响程度。方法采用北京市疾病预防控制中心2005--2007年5—10月共54旬的蚊虫密度数据及同期的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、降雨量、降雨天数、日照时间、相对湿度、平均风速等气象资料，采用SAS9．0统计软件进行多元逐步回归。结果多元回归共线性诊断结果显示平均气温、平均最高气温与平均最低气温三者之间存在严重共线性，三者不能同时进入回归方程。多元逐步回归方程为y=0．53397 X2＋0．078 14X7-2．67329 X8-2．23256。其中墨代表平均最低气温，量代表相对湿度，魁代表平均风速。结论与蚊虫密度相关的气象因素主要为平均最低气温、相对湿度、平均风速；按其影响程度大小依次为平均最低气温、平均风速、相对湿度。

Study on the relationship between mosquito density and meteorological factors in Beijing

Objective To study the influence of main meteorological parameters on the mosquito density. Methods With the data of mosquito density from 2005 to 2007 provided by Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the meteorological data such as average temperature, average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, rainfall, rainy days, sunshine time, relative humidity and average wind speed, a multiple stepwise regression would be made with statistical software SAS 9.0. Results The multiple regression co-linearity results showed there was strong linear relationship among average temperature, average minimum temperature and average minimum temperature. The multiple stepwise regression equation was y= 0.533 97X2＋ 0.078 14X7- 2.673 29X8- 2.232 56 （X2, X7 and X8 represented average minimum temperature, relative humidity and average wind speed, respectively）. Conclusion The main meteorological parameters closely related to mosquito density were average minimum temperature, relative humidity and average wind speed. The order which affected mosquito density was in turn average minimum temperature, average wind speed and relative humidity