| 应用GM（1,1）模型对全国1999-2009年肾综合征出血热疫情分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘洁,曲波,何钦成.应用GM（1,1）模型对全国1999-2009年肾综合征出血热疫情分析及预测[J].中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2011,22(3):248-250. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘洁 曲波 何钦成 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,辽宁,沈阳,110001 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的分析我国1999-2009年肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的疫情特点,探讨GM（1,1）模型在HFRS疫情分析预测中的应用。方法收集全国范围1999-2009年的HFRS逐年疫情资料,应用GM（1,1）模型进行拟合分析。结果我国HFRS发病近年有所下降,但其病死率并未相应降低,仍是危害我国居民生命健康的主要传染病;1999-2009年全国HFRSGM（1,1）模型预测值和发病率实际值吻合程度较好,进一步预测2010及2011年HFRS的发病率分别为0.61/10万和0.51/10万。结论运用GM（1,1）模型对HFRS发病进行预测是可行的,该模型的拟合和预测效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 肾综合征出血热 发病率 GM（1 1）模型 |
GM(1,1) model-based epidemiological analysis and prediction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 1999 to 2009 |
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| LIU Jie,QU Bo,HE Qin-cheng.GM(1,1) model-based epidemiological analysis and prediction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 1999 to 2009[J].Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control,2011,22(3):248-250. |
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| Authors: | LIU Jie QU Bo HE Qin-cheng |
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| Institution: | LIU Jie,QU Bo,HE Qin-cheng Department of Statistics,School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang 110001,Liaoning Province,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) in China from 1999 to 2009 using the GM(1,1) model for evaluation of its application in similar analyses. Methods The analysis was based on the GM(1,1) model created using nationwide incidence data of HFRS from 1999 to 2009. Results Despite slowly decreasing morbidity,the mortality of HFRS remained stable in recent years,making the disease an ongoing public health threat in China. The predicted values bas... |
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| Keywords: | Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Incidence rate GM(1 1) model |
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