Optimized river diversion scenarios promote sustainability of urbanized deltas

Socioeconomic viability of fluvial-deltaic systems is limited by natural processes of these dynamic landforms. An especially impactful occurrence is avulsion, whereby channels unpredictably shift course. We construct a numerical model to simulate artificial diversions, which are engineered to prevent channel avulsion, and direct sediment-laden water to the coastline, thus mitigating land loss. We provide a framework that identifies the optimal balance between river diversion cost and civil disruption by flooding. Diversions near the river outlet are not sustainable, because they neither reduce avulsion frequency nor effectively deliver sediment to the coast; alternatively, diversions located halfway to the delta apex maximize landscape stability while minimizing costs. We determine that delta urbanization generates a positive feedback: infrastructure development justifies sustainability and enhanced landform preservation vis-à-vis diversions.

Deltaic environments are critical for societal wellbeing because these landscapes provide an abundance of natural resources that promote human welfare (1, 2). However, the sustainability of deltas is uncertain due to sea-level rise (3, 4), sediment supply reduction (4–6), and land subsidence (7, 8). Additionally, river avulsion, the process of sudden channel relocation (9, 10), presents a dichotomy to delta sustainability: the unanticipated civil disruption associated with flooding brought by channel displacement is at odds with society’s desire for landscape stability, yet channel relocation is needed to deliver nutrients and sediment to various locations along the deltaic coastline (11, 12). Indeed, for many of the world’s megadeltas, channel engineering practices have sought to restrict channel mobility and limit floodplain connectivity (13, 14), which in turn prevents sediment dispersal that is necessary to sustain deltas; as a consequence, land loss has ensued (15). Despite providing near-term stability (13–15), engineering of deltaic channels is a long-term detrimental practice (11, 15–17).To maximize societal benefit, measures that promote delta sustainability must balance engineering infrastructure cost and impact on delta morphology with benefits afforded by maintaining and developing deltaic landscapes (1, 2, 11, 12, 16–19). For example, channel diversions, costing millions to billions of dollars (20–22), are now planned worldwide to both prevent unintended avulsions and ensure coastal sustainability through enhanced sediment delivery (e.g., Fig. 1A) (20, 21, 23–26).Open in a separate windowFig. 1.(A) Satellite image of Yellow River delta (Landsat, 1978) showing coastline response to a diversion in 1976 at the open circle, which changed the channel course from the north (Diaokou lobe) to the east (Qingshuigou lobe) and produced flooding over the stripe-hatched area (30). (B and C) Planform view (B) and along-channel cross-section view (C) of conceptual model for numerical simulations and societal benefit formulation. In the diagrams, a diversion at LD≈0.8Lb floods an area (af) defined by Lf and θ, diverting sediment away from the deltaic lobe (with length Ll). Aggradation of the former channel bed (dashed line) is variable; hence, diversion length influences the propensity for subsequent avulsion setup.In this article, we consider the benefits and costs of such engineered river diversions and determine how these practices most effectively sustain deltaic landscapes, by assessing optimal placement and timing for river diversions. Addressing these points requires combining two modeling frameworks: a morphodynamic approach—evolving the landscape over time and space by evaluating the interactions of river fluid flow and sediment transport—and a decision-making framework (21, 22, 27, 28). The former simulates deltaic channel diversions by assessing the nonlinear relationships between channel diversion length (LD) and the frequency (timing) of avulsions (TA), while the latter incorporates a societal benefit model that approximates urbanization by considering the cost of flooding a landscape that would otherwise generate revenue. The aim is to optimize timing and placement of channel diversions, by giving consideration to morphodynamic operations and societal wellbeing. Interestingly, optimal societal benefit indicates that urbanization justifies enhanced sustainability measures, which contradicts existing paradigms that label development and sustainability mutually exclusive (3, 7, 12). Ultimately, the societal benefit model should be an integrated component in decision-making frameworks. This will help locate diversions and promote sustainable and equitable decisions considering historical, ethical, and environmental contexts for river management decisions (29).