兰州市大气污染与居民健康效应的时间序列研究

目的定量化研究兰州市大气污染物对居民心血管疾病日住院人数及居民日死亡人数的影响。方法收集2004年1月1日-2007年12月31日兰州市大气主要污染物资料，收集兰州市同期心血管疾病日住院资料及居民日死亡资料，采用Poisson广义相加模型进行兰州市大气污染与居民心血管疾病日住院人数及居民日死亡人数的回归分析。结果兰州市大气主要污染物对心血管疾病住院人数和居民总死亡人数的影响均有滞后效应，不同污染物对总心血管疾病及居民总死亡人数的影响也不相同。PM10、SO2及NO2日平均浓度每增加10μg／m^3，总心血管疾病日住院人数分别增加0．21％、1．15％和1．08％，居民日死亡人数分别增加0．71％、1．29％、1．95％。结论兰州市大气污染物PM10SO2及NO2浓度与心血管疾病住院人数及居民死亡人数存在一定的相关性，污染物浓度升高，心血管疾病住院及居民死亡的危险性随之增加。

Time-series Analysis of Air Pollutants and Their Health Effect on Residents in Lanzhou

Objectives To analyze quantitatively the acute effect of serious air pollutants on daily cardiovascular disease admissions and daily deaths in Lanzhou. Methods The data on meteorology and air pollutants collected from Meteorological Bureau and Environmental Monitoring Network, and the data on daily cardiovascular disease admissions and daily deaths were analyzed by using a semi-parametric generalized additive model; and the association of daily cardiovascular disease admissions and daily deaths with PM10, SO2 and NO2 was analyzed by a Poisson regression. Results There was a lag effect of air pollutants on daily cardiovascular disease admissions and daily deaths in Lanzhou. The lag effect on total cardiovascular disease, ischemic cardiovascular disease, hypertension and the death was different with various pollutants. With an increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2, the increase of daily total cardiovascular disease admissions would be 0.21% , 1.15% and 1.08% , respectively, and that the increase of daily deaths would be 0.71%, 1.29% and 1.95%, respectively. Conclusions There is a short-term impact of air pollutants PM10, SO2 and NO2on human health; the higher the air pollutants, the more the daily cardiovascular disease admissions and daily deaths of residents in Lanzhou.