Predictors of death during 10 years after coronary artery bypass grafting with particular emphasis on age

OBJECTIVES: To describe predictors of death during 10 years of follow-up after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); to evaluate whether age interacts with the influence of various predictors on outcome; and to compare the mortality during 10 years after CABG with the mortality in an age- and sex-matched control population. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study. SETTING: Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery at Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Scandinavian Heart Centre in G?teborg, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: All patients from western Sweden who underwent CABG between 1 June 1988 and 1 June 1991 without simultaneous valve surgery and with no previous CABG. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: All-cause mortality during 10 years but more than 30 days after CABG. RESULTS: In all, 2000 patients participated in the survey. The following factors appeared as independent predictors of death: preoperative factors-age, history of congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, history of intermittent claudication, current smoking, degree of left ventricular impairment, valvular disease and duration of angina pectoris; peroperative factors-ventilator time and neurological complications; postoperative factors-arrhythmia, requirement of digitalis and requirement of antidiabetics. There was an interaction between age and history of cerebrovascular disease with a stronger impact on outcome in younger patients. The late (>30 days after CABG) 10-year mortality in the study cohort was 29.6% compared with 25.9% in the control population (P=0.02). CONCLUSION: Among patients who underwent CABG, 13 independent predictors for mortality were found, mainly among preoperative factors but also among peroperative factors, postoperative complications and medication requirement after CABG.