采用圆形分布法探讨宝山区梅毒发病的季节性

目的分析不同时期上海市宝山区梅毒发病情况,并探讨其发病季节性变化的规律。方法采用圆形分布法将数据进行统计分析,计算平均角α、集中度量r值、角标准差s,估计发病高峰日,并用Rayleigh’s test（雷氏检验）进行检验和Watson-William法进行多个样本的比较。结果经F检验,F=15.1667,P〈0.01,各样本平均角不等,有较集中的趋势,每年的6月末至9月初是梅毒发病集中的时段;每年的12月至次年3月是梅毒病例的低发时期。结论宝山区各年的数据,经过统计学分析发现梅毒的发病时间有明显的时间分布规律,6月末至9月初是实施防治梅毒行为干预措施的主要时间。

Study of the Seasonal Distribution of Syphilis in Baoshan District with the Circular Distribution Method

[Objective] To analyze the seasonal distribution and regulation of syphilis in Baoshan District of Shanghai.[Methods] Circular distribution method was used to analyze the data,calculate mean angle,mean vector and circular standard deviation and estimate the peak period of syphilis incidence;Rayleigh's test was used for the detection and Watson-William test was applied for comparison.[Results] F-test demonstrated a statistically significant difference(F=15.1667;P<0.01) between the mean angles which had a centralized tendency;the peak of the syphilis incidence was found to be from the end of June to the beginning of September,while the period between December to the next March was the low tide.[Conclusion] The incidence of syphilis has significant seasonal distribution;June to September is the major period for syphilis prevention and interference.