吉林省高危人群中艾滋病疫情估计和预测

目的:估计2009年吉林省艾滋病高危人群中艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者人数,并预测未来几年(2010-2015年)吉林省艾滋病疫情流行趋势,为艾滋病防治工作提供依据.方法:综合吉林省哨点监测、病例报告、专题调查以及文献报道等数据,利用工作簿法、疫情估计和预测软件包、亚洲疫情模型3种模型,对吉林省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测...

Estimation and projection of HIV epidemic among high-risk population in Jilin province

Objective To estimate the number of people who lives with HIV and AIDS(PLWHA)in 2009 and the HIV epidemic trend in next six years(2010-2015) in Jilin province and provide evidence for HIV prevention and control.Methods The data from sentinel surveillance,case report,epidemiological survey and scientific lectures were used in Workbook method,Estimation and Projection Package and Asia Epidemic Model to estimate the number of HIV/AIDS and to project the HIV epidemic trend in Jilin province.Results By the end of 2009,it was estimated that among high-risk population the number of cumulative PLWHA was 4 388,the total prevalence of HIV was 0.024% in Jilin province and over 50% of PLWHA were men who had sex with men.HIV epidemic trend will be rising from 2010 to 2015 in Jilin province,where the trend among MSM will go upward markedly,the rising trend among IDU will be slowed down and the rising trend among FSW and their clients will be relatively slow.Conclusion The HIV epidemic in Jilin province was still at a lower level in 2009 and the sexual transmission was the main transmission way.MSM and clients of FSW are the focus population who must be given more attention in the future.